Quote:DJTBIn that article, the Wiz states that the odds of getting all six numbers is 0.000164

DJTB: I am an old, short, fat, dumpy dude with a somewhat slow mind, so answer me this: The .0001 number is at the 10,000th level is it not? I see where someone stated that conversion is at the 6100 to 1 level yet the 0.000164 seems to be at the 10,000+ to 1 level. Please straighten me out on this one. Thanks for the link. It was eye opening especially on point conversions in general.

tuttigym

Quote:mipletAll from ask wiz craps

Ave. number of seven outs per 6 point fire bet: 6156

Ave. number of rolls per seven out: 8.52551

Ave. rolls per hour:

Players - rolls

1 - 249

3 - 216

5 - 144

7 - 135

9 - 123

11 - 102

Thus at a 5 player table : 16.7 outs / hour. = 368 hours between fire bets = 1 every two weeks. If the table was constantly busy.

In a big enough casino with 4-6 active craps tables, I could see once a week happening. In a smaller casino with 1-2 tables not always active, once every 3 months seems reasonable too.

The easy way to turn it around is to enter it into a calculator: 1 / .000164 = 6,097.561

But to just read the post and 'accept it as true', follow along:

.0001 IS at the 10,000 level as you suspect. I.E. It's 1 in 10,000. That the same as 10,000 to 1.

.0002 is 2 in 10,000 which equals 1 in 5,000. Still with me?

.000164 is somewhere in between. Now is it easier to accept that it's about 1 in 6,100 ?

Quote:DJTB

The easy way to turn it around is to enter it into a calculator: 1 / .000164 = 6,097.561

But to just read the post and 'accept it as true', follow along:

.0001 IS at the 10,000 level as you suspect. I.E. It's 1 in 10,000. That the same as 10,000 to 1.

.0002 is 2 in 10,000 which equals 1 in 5,000. Still with me?

.000164 is somewhere in between. Now is it easier to accept that it's about 1 in 6,100 ?

Absolutely got it now. Thanks very much. The other dude had it right, but I doubted his math, so I need to get back to him and apologize, and make sure that he knows that I was wrong!!

The Fire Bet chart you linked me to is very descriptive. Is there another chart that is similar showing the odds of just consecutive point conversions by one shooter regardless of which points are in play? If so, can you link me there too? Thanks

tuttigym

Quote:tuttigym

The Fire Bet chart you linked me to is very descriptive. Is there another chart that is similar showing the odds of just consecutive point conversions by one shooter regardless of which points are in play? If so, can you link me there too? Thanks

tuttigym

There is an incomplete chart on that same page near the bottem Sharp Shooter

The formula for exact number of points use (67/165)^p*(98/165) for alteast number of points use (67/165)^p where p is the number of points.

tuttigym

And a player that gets the 4/10 first has more chance of completing all six than the guy who gets the 6/8 first.

But none of that affects the overall odds discussed on the Wiz' Craps page, FireBet section. Those odds are calculated for a new shooter, which is the only time you cal place the FireBet bet.

Quote:DJTBBut none of that affects the overall odds discussed on the Wiz' Craps page, FireBet section. Those odds are calculated for a new shooter, which is the only time you cal place the FireBet bet.

I understood that fact regarding the intial bet. I just wondered if those particular odds were available. It is no biggie and thanks for the reply.

tuttigym